Gora Obso's Election 2020 Analysis

Trump won in 2016 because the Romney 2012 coalition held up better for him than the Obama 2012 coalition held up for Clinton in 2016. Primarily, a small but key subset of Obama voters, disproportionately concentrated in midwestern swing states, shifted to Trump and the black vote failed turn out in the same numbers that it did for Obama. Furthermore, Trump did lose a small number of upper middle class Republican voters, but these voters were small in number in addition to being disproportionately in safe blue and redstates- and many broke for a third party (such as the significant number of Mormon voters that voted for Evan McMullin) rather than Clinton. There was an increase in Asian and Latino turnout but it was so small and, again, concentrated in safe blue and red states that it wasn't really a major factor.

These, and a few other, changes in turnout and voting preferences accumulated to allow Trump to eke out an electoral victory by maintaining blue-trending but traditionally Republican states like Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina while also winning traditionally Democrat midwestern states with high numbers of white working class voters.

Trump winning reelection pretty much depends on all of these things holding true again. Demographic change, while happening, is probably not fast enough alone to lead Trump to losing reelection, but it does further decrease his room for error. Of course, Trump could always make gains with other groups. Democrats could nominate somebody so radical that some portion of suburban blue voters vote third party or vote Trump. Or Trump could make even further gains among the white working class (yes there are still a significant number of white working class voters who voted for Clinton).

As far as predictions go, I think Trump has about a 40% chance of winning reelection. That falls if Biden ends up being the nominee and rises if Harris or Warren ends up winning.


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