Is Trump Doomed in 2020?
This is the second time I've replied to a Lion of the Blogosphere post. It's one of the most interesting blogs I read so naturally I always like to respond when I see something I disagree with. This time LOTB is arguing that Trump is doomed for reelection! Is this the truth?
LOTB gives the following reasons:
1.) Older voters, disproportionately Trump supporters are dying off
2.) Younger voters, disproportionately more liberal, are joining the voting population
3.) Anti Trump hysteria will drive up Democrat turnout
4.) Pro Trump outrage peaked out in November 2016
5.) Not nearly enough Clinton voters will "jump ship" to vote Trump in 2020 to make up for these shifts
So is Trump doomed as LOTB says?
Maybe, but there are a number of things that make me think he could have a chance. First off, it is true that older voters tend to be conservative while younger voters tend to be liberal. And, admittedly, it seems that younger voters are not getting any less liberal. However, these changes are VERY slow. They matter a lot in the long term but they make very little difference from election cycle to election cycle. And, even though Trump's margin of victory was slim, demographic changes are so slow that, alone, they are unlikely to be sufficient to change the 2020 outcome.
The issue of turnout, however, is a bigger potential issue. If there's an unprecedented Democrat base turnout surge in 2020, Trump loses. But, there probably won't be. If pro Trump sentiment peaked in November 2016, then anti Trump sentiment probably peaked in 2018. Which base is "energized" tends to shift rather aimlessly from cycle to cycle and, typically, turnout and energy in a midterm is not a good predictor of what will happen the next general election.
My assumption is that the big thing that drove Democrat turnout in 2018 is a great get out the vote effort among people who DID vote in 2016- getting typical general election voters who don't typically vote in midterms to turnout. It's not necessarily true that hyped up midterm turnout will translate into hyped up Presidential turnout.
The biggest reason Trump still has a chance in 2020 is simple: the Democrats might nominate a terrible candidate. I'll admit that a Biden nomination would probably be disastrous for Trump. But, right now, nomination of Harris, Warren, or Sanders all seem very possible. Harris is essentially an ultra "woke", semi neo liberal type candidate who doesn't appeal to the hardcore progressives ot excite the sort of left wing "socialist energy" that a Sanders might. She'll do even worse among the white working class than Clinton. And, amazingly, something like 25% of Hillary's voters in 2016 were WWC meaning that, yes, the Democrats could go even lower.
Sanders is a socialist which would probably turn off the "moderate Republican" suburban voters that helped Democrats win in 2016, many of which voted for Clinton. And Warren is somewhere in between Harris and Sanders and, therefore, faces both problems albeit to a less degree in both cases.
The bottom line is that, yes, I think Trump can win. In fact, if the Democrats nominate somebody other than Biden, I think he might be the favorite.
LOTB gives the following reasons:
1.) Older voters, disproportionately Trump supporters are dying off
2.) Younger voters, disproportionately more liberal, are joining the voting population
3.) Anti Trump hysteria will drive up Democrat turnout
4.) Pro Trump outrage peaked out in November 2016
5.) Not nearly enough Clinton voters will "jump ship" to vote Trump in 2020 to make up for these shifts
So is Trump doomed as LOTB says?
Maybe, but there are a number of things that make me think he could have a chance. First off, it is true that older voters tend to be conservative while younger voters tend to be liberal. And, admittedly, it seems that younger voters are not getting any less liberal. However, these changes are VERY slow. They matter a lot in the long term but they make very little difference from election cycle to election cycle. And, even though Trump's margin of victory was slim, demographic changes are so slow that, alone, they are unlikely to be sufficient to change the 2020 outcome.
The issue of turnout, however, is a bigger potential issue. If there's an unprecedented Democrat base turnout surge in 2020, Trump loses. But, there probably won't be. If pro Trump sentiment peaked in November 2016, then anti Trump sentiment probably peaked in 2018. Which base is "energized" tends to shift rather aimlessly from cycle to cycle and, typically, turnout and energy in a midterm is not a good predictor of what will happen the next general election.
My assumption is that the big thing that drove Democrat turnout in 2018 is a great get out the vote effort among people who DID vote in 2016- getting typical general election voters who don't typically vote in midterms to turnout. It's not necessarily true that hyped up midterm turnout will translate into hyped up Presidential turnout.
The biggest reason Trump still has a chance in 2020 is simple: the Democrats might nominate a terrible candidate. I'll admit that a Biden nomination would probably be disastrous for Trump. But, right now, nomination of Harris, Warren, or Sanders all seem very possible. Harris is essentially an ultra "woke", semi neo liberal type candidate who doesn't appeal to the hardcore progressives ot excite the sort of left wing "socialist energy" that a Sanders might. She'll do even worse among the white working class than Clinton. And, amazingly, something like 25% of Hillary's voters in 2016 were WWC meaning that, yes, the Democrats could go even lower.
Sanders is a socialist which would probably turn off the "moderate Republican" suburban voters that helped Democrats win in 2016, many of which voted for Clinton. And Warren is somewhere in between Harris and Sanders and, therefore, faces both problems albeit to a less degree in both cases.
The bottom line is that, yes, I think Trump can win. In fact, if the Democrats nominate somebody other than Biden, I think he might be the favorite.
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